Does Investing in Crypto Protect You Against Inflation?

The answer is NO.

Inflation has been in the news again over the last few days (and weeks and months) after the government reported last Friday that CPI inflation over the last twelve months hit 6.8%, the highest rate in almost 40 years. There are a lot of interesting issues and nuances for how investors and policymakers should react to this news, but one question that seems to be popping up is how inflation is related to cryptocurrency prices and whether cryptocurrencies are a good hedge against inflation? I’ve tried to tackle this question in a couple of interviews, mostly based on economic intuition, but I thought it was time to take a look at the data and see if we can get a better answer to this question by looking at market prices.

Intuition

The logic behind the cryptocurrency-as-inflation-hedge hypothesis is straightforward: inflation is a monetary phenomenon caused by the U.S. government printing and spending too many dollars, those dollars chasing too few goods and services, and the value of dollars therefore dropping in value. Since the government can’t print Bitcoin, it should keep its value even as the dollar loses value. Of course this intuition also extends to other assets like stocks, real estate, commodities, precious metals, fine art, and even collectibles.

One of the main advantages of money over other assets, and the reason why inflation is so pernicious, is that we can expect to be able to buy approximately the same amount in goods and services with a dollar today as tomorrow, next month, or next year. In other words, money should be a stable way to store value. However, cryptocurrencies are much less stable than dollars and most other asset classes, going up or down 10% (or more) in one day on a monthly basis (this already happened 13 times this calendar year). So it seems strange to think that a person who is worried about holding dollars because they lost 7% of their value over the last year would be comfortable holding Bitcoin which could (and often does) lose that much value in a single day.


Suprisingly, the two lowest correlations with inflation expectations come from Bitcoin and Gold, two investments that are thought to be good ways to protect yourself against inflation.


Market Prices and Correlations

A simple way to find out how two different variables are related to each other is to calculate their correlation coefficient, a statistical measure of how strongly two variables comove. Because stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies are traded all the time (during trading hours), we can see how their prices are typically associated with each other.

Although we can’t measure inflation continuously, there are investment products called TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) that allow us to back out what market participants believe about the future rate of inflation at any point in time. We can therefore calculate the correlation between the change in inflation expectations on any particular day and the returns on different asset classes. A higher correlation indicates an asset class is a better inflation hedge, i.e., is more likely to go up in value when investors receive news that suggests higher inflation in the future.

I started by collecting daily prices and returns going back to April 2013 on Bitcoin, the stock market (ticker SPY), commodities (ticker GSG), gold (ticker GLD), and real estate (ticker VNQ). I also downloaded and calculated the daily change in the 5-year breakeven inflation rate and the daily change on 5-year Treasury yields. Then I calculated the correlations between the daily returns on each asset class and the daily change in the expected inflation rate, separately for the period from 2013 through 2020, and the year 2021, to see whether the correlations changed might have changed this year as inflation heated up and investors started worrying about hedging it.

The chart above clearly shows that the best way to hedge against inflation is by investing in the commodities ETF, which has a correlation with inflation expectations of 0.39 (in prior years), and 0.45 this calendar year. Prices of commodities like oil, coffee, wheat, copper, etc., are important inputs for many of the goods and services we buy so it’s logical that their price changes would affect future inflation and thus inflation expectations. Stocks also effectively hedge inflation with correlations of 0.3 in prior years, and 0.24 in 2021. Since companies can pass down higher prices to their customers, they earn higher nominal profits when inflation is higher.

The real estate ETF is a weaker hedge but still positively correlated with inflation expectations. Surprisingly, the two lowest correlations with inflation expectations come from Bitcoin and Gold, two investments that are thought to be good ways to protect yourself against inflation. At least over the last decade, we can definitively say that they were not effective ways to insure yourself against inflation.

Finally, Treasury bonds pay fixed dollar amounts to investors so we would expect that bond yields to move up (and bond prices to move down) when inflation expectations rise and the value of future dollars falls, which is exactly what shows up in the chart.


The same forces that explain changes in stock prices: attitudes toward risk, speculation, and capital flows, are also driving Bitcoin prices.


‘Hot’ and ‘Cold’ Inflation Days

One way to help visualize these correlations is by comparing the average return of each asset class on the “hottest” (and “coldest”) inflation days, which I define as the 1% of all trading days on which inflation expectation moved up (and moved down) the most.

The bar graph above shows the average return of each asset class on the hottest inflation days in red and the coldest inflation days in blue. Again, the biggest effect from inflation is seen in commodities, which have a 2.8% higher average daily return on hot versus cold inflation days. Stock prices are less sensitive to inflation expectations but there is still a 1.4% difference in average returns between hot and cold inflation days, very similar to the gap in the real estate ETF. Bitcoin has almost no difference in returns between hot and cold inflation days, with only a 0.3% higher average return on days when inflation expectations go up the most compared to when they go down the most. Again, cryptocurrency prices are not reacting much to good or bad inflation news.


What Drives Bitcoin Prices?

Because all these asset classes are highly correlated with each other, it can be hard to determine from simple correlations what variable independently affects what other variable. For example, one possible explanation for why we are finding almost no correlation between Bitcoin and inflation expectations could be because inflation boosts commodity prices and the higher commodity prices independently have a negative effect on bitcoin prices. Running a regression allows us to tease out these explanations, by measuring the independent effects of multiple variables, while controlling for the others.

The table above shows the result from a regression of daily Bitcoin returns on the daily returns of asset classes, changes in inflation expectations, and changes in Treasury bond yields. Again, I run this regression separately for prior years and for this calendar year, but the results are very similar in both specifications. The only explanatory variable that is significantly related to daily Bitcoin returns is daily stock returns. This finding suggests that the same forces that explain changes in stock prices: risk attitudes, speculation, and capital flows, are also driving movement in Bitcoin prices. There is no evidence that investors are using Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.

Now one might wonder whether these results are unique to Bitcoin or whether the same is true of other cryptocurrencies. I focused on Bitcoin because it is the oldest cryptocurrency and thus we have the most returns data for it, but I found nearly identical results when looking at Ethereum and Dogecoin, not surprising since their prices are all very highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin.


Conclusion

Most human beings make decisions based on heuristics, simple shortcuts or “rules of thumb” that allow us to save time while coming pretty close to the optimal decision. When investing, behavior finance research shows that such heuristics can lead to major errors because the right decision is not always logical, intuitive or simple. When one kind of money is losing value, heuristics lead us to hold other forms of money. In this case, the right answer to protect oneself from inflation is not to hold money at all.

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139 Responses

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    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has […]

  98. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  99. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  100. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  101. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  102. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved […]

  103. December 29, 2021

    […] contra la inflación. Eso incluye a Leonard Kostovetsky, profesor de finanzas en Boston College, quien recordó en su publicación de blog que hubo 13 días en 2021 en los que el precio de BTC se movió más del 10% en una dirección. […]

  104. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved […]

  105. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  106. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  107. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved […]

  108. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in one […]

  109. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  110. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That features Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston Faculty, who recalled in his weblog publish that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% […]

  111. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved […]

  112. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  113. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  114. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  115. December 29, 2021

    […] contra la inflación. Eso incluye a Leonard Kostovetsky, profesor de finanzas en Boston College, quien recordó en su publicación de blog que hubo 13 días en 2021 en los que el precio de BTC se movió más del 10% en una dirección. […]

  116. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  117. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  118. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  119. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  120. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  121. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  122. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  123. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  124. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  125. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  126. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  127. December 29, 2021

    […] hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved […]

  128. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That features Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston Faculty, who recalled in his weblog put up that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% […]

  129. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That features Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston Faculty, who recalled in his weblog publish that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% […]

  130. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  131. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  132. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  133. December 29, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  134. December 30, 2021

    […] asset for inflation. Leonard Kostovetsky, professor of finance at Boston University, repeated in post on his blog that there are 13 days in 2021 that Bitcoin price is moving more than 10% in the same […]

  135. December 30, 2021

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  136. January 1, 2022

    […] ceux-ci Leo­nard Kos­to­vets­ky, pro­fes­seur de finance au Bos­ton Col­lege. Dans un article publié en décembre, il expli­quait qu’on avait pu dénom­brer cette année 13 jours durant […]

  137. January 2, 2022

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in […]

  138. January 3, 2022

    […] inflation hedge. That includes Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston College, who recalled in his blog post that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% in one […]

  139. January 4, 2022

    […] inflation hedge. That features Leonard Kostovetsky, a finance professor at Boston Faculty, who recalled in his weblog put up that there have been 13 days in 2021 when BTC’s price has moved over 10% […]